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Convergence of Economic Growth and the Great Recession as Seen From a Celestial Observatory

机译:从经济增长看经济增长趋势与经济大衰退   天文台

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摘要

Macroeconomic theories of growth and wealth distribution have an outsizedinfluence on national and international social and economic policies. Yet, dueto a relative lack of reliable, system wide data, many such theories remain, atbest, unvalidated and, at worst, misleading. In this paper, we introduce anovel economic observatory and framework enabling high resolution comparisonsand assessments of the distributional impact of economic development throughthe remote sensing of planet earth's surface. Striking visual and empiricalvalidation is observed for a broad, global macroeconomic sigma-convergence inthe period immediately following the end of the Cold War. What is more, weobserve strong empirical evidence that the mechanisms driving sigma-convergencefailed immediately after the financial crisis and the start of the GreatRecession. Nevertheless, analysis of both cross-country and cross-state samplesindicates that, globally, disproportionately high growth levels and excessivelyhigh decay levels have become rarer over time. We also see that urban areas,especially concentrated within short distances of major capital cities weremore likely than rural or suburban areas to see relatively high growth in theaftermath of the financial crisis. Observed changes in growth polarity can beattributed plausibly to post-crisis government intervention and subsidypolicies introduced around the world. Overall, the data and techniques wepresent here make economic evidence for the rise of China, the decline of U.S.manufacturing, the euro crisis, the Arab Spring, and various, recent, MiddleEast conflicts visually evident for the first time.
机译:增长和财富分配的宏观经济理论对国家和国际社会经济政策的影响很大。然而,由于相对缺乏可靠的,系统范围的数据,许多这样的理论仍然充其量是充其量,未被证实并且最坏的情况是会引起误解。在本文中,我们介绍了另一种经济观测站和框架,该框架可以通过对行星表面的遥感进行高分辨率的比较和对经济发展的分布影响进行评估。在冷战结束后不久的时期内,就广泛的全球宏观经济sigma收敛观察到了惊人的视觉和经验验证。此外,我们观察到有力的经验证据表明,导致sigma收敛的机制在金融危机和大衰退开始后立即失效。然而,对跨国和跨州样本的分析表明,随着时间的流逝,全球范围内不成比例的高增长水平和过高的衰减水平变得越来越罕见。我们还看到,在金融危机之后,特别是集中在主要首都城市的短距离内的城市地区比农村或郊区更可能出现相对较高的增长。观察到的增长极性变化可以合理地归因于危机后的政府干预和世界各地引入的补贴政策。总体而言,我们在此提供的数据和技术为中国的崛起,美国制造业的衰落,欧元危机,阿拉伯之春以及最近发生的各种近期中东冲突提供了经济证据。

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